Leading in uncertainty
The most effective leaders I work with are the ones who know how to lead in uncertainty.
They are comfortable with it.
They are okay with being in the middle of a complex problem and not knowing what the outcome will be.
They hold multiple scenarios in their mind at once, and have contingency plans should any of them fall through.
They know that running experiments and making small bets will be enough to take the next step and then wait for the next piece of information to emerge.
They are willing to seek out people to help them round out their perspective and in some cases challenge their thinking.
Leading well in uncertainty requires knowing the type of environment you are in.
And unless you work in accounts payable or another area where there are clear inputs and outputs, you likely work in a complex environment.
A complex environment is not the same as chaos.
In chaos, you have to move fast.
You stabilize.
You stop the bleeding and restore order.
But a complex environment?
Complexity is navigable.
You can lead in it.
You can make decisions in it.
There may not be a clear roadmap—but that’s not a barrier.
It’s an invitation.
As a leader, you don’t wait for the path to appear.
You chart it.
As Doc in Back to the Future Part III reminded us: “The future hasn’t been written yet.”
You have more tools than you think.
Here are five to start using right now:
Curiosity
Instead of searching for answers, start with better questions.
What’s true right now that you’ve been overlooking?
What assumptions are you still carrying that no longer apply?
Curiosity reveals the data that’s already in front of you.Creativity
Uncertainty demands new thinking.
Who challenges your perspective? Who stretches your ideas?
If everyone around you thinks the same way, you’re already limited.Your Secrets of Success
You’ve done hard things before.
Look closely at the conditions, behaviors, and instincts that have made you effective over time.
Those patterns didn’t disappear—they’re still available to you.Your Inner Compass
When external signals are noisy, your internal ones matter more.
Your values. Your energy. Your sense of what matters.
These aren’t soft—they’re directional.A Willingness to Experiment
You don’t need the full plan. You need the next step.
Run small experiments. Learn quickly. Adjust. Move again.
Momentum creates clarity—not the other way around.
Use what you have. Test what you can. Learn as you go.
The future isn’t something you discover.
It’s something you create.
Love,
Audrey
